Mooresville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

999
FXUS62 KGSP 100545
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
145 AM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system approaches Thursday bringing chances for showers
and a few thunderstorms through Friday. Dry and cool weather returns
over the weekend. Expecting warmer weather early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 135 AM EDT Thursday...High cloudiness was approaching from
the west at this hour, while the first evidence of low cloud
formation had appeared on the imagery east of the mtns. Temps were
in generally good shape. No changes.

Otherwise...shower and thunderstorm chances return from west to
east from mid- morning to early evening Thursday ahead of the low
pressure system.  Have the highest PoPs (likely to categorical)
across the northern half of the forecast area with lower PoPs
(chance) across the southern zones. 45-60 kts of deep layer
shear will be in place ahead of the system, with less than 1,000
J/kg of SBCAPE expected to develop during peak heating. So,
a few isolated strong to severe storms cannot be entirely ruled
out Thursday afternoon/early evening. The main hazards would be
damaging winds gusts and large hail with any storm that manages
to become severe. However, confidence on the severe threat is low
at this time as better forcing and instability will remain west
of the forecast area. Highs on Thursday will be limited by both
rain and cloud cover, ending up ~3-5 degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 PM Wed: If a second round of convection is not already
ongoing at 00z Fri, one may get going in western and/or southern
parts of our CWA during the evening. A linear MCS may have developed
over some portion of northern MS/AL/GA at the start of the period;
instability and low-level theta-e will be considerably better over
central AL/GA than our CWA so it is more likely to track in that
direction, and this is supported by most CAM output. However,
as trough digs and embedded shortwave and cold front swing
eastward overnight, any lingering instability over the CWA could
materialize into showers or t-storms. Although CAPE and strong
0-6km shear appear may overlap for a time in the evening over parts
of the southern CWA, the better forcing appears unlikely to have
arrived by then. The remaining overnight CAPE profiles are largely
"skinny" and model QPF response looks to result from disorganized
convection. Can`t dismiss the SPC D2 Marginal Risk especially if
MCS or cold-pool driven cells make a run at the area in the evening,
but feel it does not need to be any farther east than it is.

The shortwave/front appear likely to have crossed most of the CWA
by daybreak Friday, although the I-77 corridor might not see the
fropa occur until 15-18z. Development of downslope west to northwest
flow across the Piedmont should lead to a lull in coverage behind
the front, at least for a time. There remains disagreement among
the major models as to whether a cutoff low actually develops at
500mb Thu night into Fri morning, and that may play a role in
how long the front lingers over our eastern zones. Regardless,
the better diurnal instability developing ahead of the front looks
to develop to our east, and shear will diminish near/behind the
front, so severe risk looks minimal for Friday. The base of the
trough however will remain overhead through the day; decent lapse
rates and perhaps a secondary convergence axis warrant keeping PoPs
through most of the day east of the mountains. Northwest flow into
the Appalachians will produce upslope precip there (see below),
with chances not looking likely to diminish until sometime Saturday.

Overnight temps Thu night will be near or slightly below normal; max
temps Friday will be 6-10 below normal. Friday night looks somewhat
windy under continuing CAA, although skies will trend clearer east
of the mountain spine. Cooling temps still imply a change to snow
where the NW flow precip is still ongoing overnight. To boot, the
spring frost-freeze program will be activated Friday in the SW NC
mountains and French Broad Valley; a high-elevation freeze appears
a reasonable bet with potentially frosty (but above-freezing)
temps in the middle elevations and valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Wed: Sfc high will build into the area Saturday night as
transient, shortwave ridge moves across the mid-MS Valley. Weakening
low-level flow and mostly clear skies will permit good radiational
cooling and make Sunday morning the coldest of the period.
Frost-freeze headlines again will be possible in the SW NC mountains.
Max temps will be a few below normal Sunday. WAA with the passage of
the ridge axis will promote warming through Monday, when maxes return
to near 80 in the Piedmont and major mountain valleys.  Heights fall
Monday night as cyclone matures over the northern Great Lakes and
surrounding trough moves across the OH/TN valleys. Cold front will
reach the Appalachians early Tuesday, bringing cooler max temps and a
chance of rain to the mountains. Near-normal temps return to all
areas Tue night, lasting into midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: No problems right now, with only high
clouds moving in from the west, but the satellite imagery shows
the first signs of the expected development of a low stratocu
cloud deck in the upslope areas on the east side of the mtns
between now and daybreak. This is expected to form an MVFR ceiling
restriction from KAND to KGMU/KGSP to KHKY before the start of
ops this morning. Wind should remain light SE. Meanwhile, a band
of precip will be approaching from the NW. Present indications are
that this precip band will reach the terminals from W to E between
16Z and 20Z and be a problem for 4-6 hours. The afternoon timing
suggests that thunder will be a possibility because we should
destabilize enough for TSRA. The CAMs suggest that in the wake of
this activity there will be improvement to VFR with lower rain
chances, but that another blob of precip will rotate around the
region starting in the mid/late evening and continuing into the
overnight hours. More restrictions are likely, and if this second
batch of rain materializes, it will bring the ceiling down to IFR
or LIFR at most terminals in the pre-dawn hours Friday. Wind should
stay SE to S.

Outlook: A low pressure system will bring showers (and
possibly thunderstorms) and associated restrictions into Friday
afternoon. Dry high pressure returns for the weekend into Monday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...AR/PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...Wimberley
AVIATION...PM